Wind Speed Prediction Based on Seasonal ARIMA model
نویسندگان
چکیده
Major dependency on fossil energy resources and emission of greenhouse gases are common problems that have a very harmful impact human communities. Thus, the use renewable resources, such as wind power, has become strong alternative to solve this problem. Nevertheless, because intermittence unpredictability energy, an accurate speed forecasting is challenging research subject. This paper addresses short-term based Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. The performances model were conducted using same dataset under different evaluation metrics in terms Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) Absolute Percentage (MAPE) performance metrics. obtained results denote used achieves excellent accuracy.
منابع مشابه
Wind Speed Prediction Using a Univariate ARIMA Model and a Multivariate NARX Model
Two on step ahead wind speed forecasting models were compared. A univariate model was developed using a linear autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). This method’s performance is well studied for a large number of prediction problems. The other is a multivariate model developed using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (NARX). This uses the variables: barom...
متن کاملmortality forecasting based on lee-carter model
over the past decades a number of approaches have been applied for forecasting mortality. in 1992, a new method for long-run forecast of the level and age pattern of mortality was published by lee and carter. this method was welcomed by many authors so it was extended through a wider class of generalized, parametric and nonlinear model. this model represents one of the most influential recent d...
15 صفحه اولWireless traffic modeling and prediction using seasonal ARIMA models
Seasonal ARIMA model is a good traffic model capable of capturing the behavior of a network traffic stream. In this paper, we give a general expression of seasonal ARIMA models with two periodicities and provide procedures to model and to predict traffic using seasonal ARIMA models. The experiments conducted in our feasibility study showed that seasonal ARIMA models can be used to model and pre...
متن کاملCombining neural network model with seasonal time series ARIMA model
This paper proposes a hybrid forecasting model, which combines the seasonal time series ARIMA (SARIMA) and the neural network back propagation (BP) models, known as SARIMABP. This model was used to forecast two seasonal time series data of total production value for Taiwan machinery industry and the soft drink time series. The forecasting performance was compared among four models, i.e., the SA...
متن کاملShort-term Wind Speed Prediction Based on Grey System Theory Model in the Region of China
Short-term wind speed forecasting is useful for power system to regulate power dispatching plan, decrease reserve power needed and increase the reliability of system. The method of the short-term wind speed prediction is proposed in this paper. The data of wind speed in Dafeng, Jiangsu Province of China is predicted by the model combined with the grey system theory (GST). A grey system model co...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: E3S web of conferences
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2555-0403', '2267-1242']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202233600034